Preseason Rankings
Fresno St.
Mountain West
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#150
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace61.4#331
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#160
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#160
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 7.7% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 2.8% 0.5%
Average Seed 13.9 11.7 12.9
.500 or above 38.9% 55.8% 29.4%
.500 or above in Conference 58.5% 68.4% 53.0%
Conference Champion 9.8% 15.5% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 2.8% 6.5%
First Four0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
First Round4.6% 7.1% 3.1%
Second Round1.0% 1.8% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Away) - 36.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 62 - 9
Quad 35 - 57 - 14
Quad 46 - 113 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 138   @ Pacific L 62-66 36%    
  Dec 05, 2020 108   @ Pepperdine L 70-77 28%    
  Dec 12, 2020 315   Cal Poly W 75-61 89%    
  Dec 28, 2020 112   @ Colorado St. L 69-75 29%    
  Dec 30, 2020 112   @ Colorado St. L 69-75 29%    
  Dec 31, 2020 180   @ New Mexico L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 01, 2021 169   Wyoming W 67-63 65%    
  Jan 02, 2021 180   @ New Mexico L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 03, 2021 169   Wyoming W 67-63 65%    
  Jan 08, 2021 282   San Jose St. W 80-69 82%    
  Jan 10, 2021 282   San Jose St. W 80-69 82%    
  Jan 14, 2021 104   @ Nevada L 69-76 28%    
  Jan 16, 2021 104   @ Nevada L 69-76 28%    
  Jan 21, 2021 86   @ Boise St. L 65-74 23%    
  Jan 23, 2021 86   @ Boise St. L 65-74 23%    
  Jan 25, 2021 102   @ UNLV L 64-71 28%    
  Jan 27, 2021 102   @ UNLV L 64-71 28%    
  Jan 28, 2021 180   New Mexico W 75-70 65%    
  Jan 30, 2021 180   New Mexico W 75-70 65%    
  Jan 31, 2021 102   UNLV L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 02, 2021 102   UNLV L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 04, 2021 75   Utah St. L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 06, 2021 75   Utah St. L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 11, 2021 225   @ Air Force W 71-69 57%    
  Feb 13, 2021 225   @ Air Force W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 18, 2021 36   San Diego St. L 61-68 27%    
  Feb 20, 2021 36   San Diego St. L 61-68 27%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 11 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.4 0.8 9.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 2.9 2.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.6 3.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.5 4.2 2.6 0.8 0.1 10.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.3 4.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.5 3.6 1.3 0.1 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.2 2.9 0.9 0.1 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.9 3.0 2.1 0.8 0.1 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.0 4.3 5.9 7.1 8.6 8.8 9.2 8.7 8.8 7.7 6.7 5.5 4.3 3.1 2.2 1.4 0.8 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
19-1 98.1% 1.4    1.2 0.1 0.0
18-2 88.7% 2.0    1.5 0.5 0.0
17-3 61.1% 1.9    1.2 0.6 0.1
16-4 38.1% 1.6    0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 18.0% 1.0    0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 6.0 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.8% 57.0% 24.5% 32.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 43.0%
19-1 1.4% 43.4% 23.0% 20.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.8 26.5%
18-2 2.2% 26.4% 16.9% 9.5% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 11.5%
17-3 3.1% 14.7% 12.7% 2.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.7 2.3%
16-4 4.3% 10.7% 9.5% 1.1% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.9 1.2%
15-5 5.5% 10.1% 9.8% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.0 0.3%
14-6 6.7% 5.9% 5.9% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.3
13-7 7.7% 3.4% 3.4% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.4
12-8 8.8% 2.4% 2.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.6
11-9 8.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.6
10-10 9.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.1
9-11 8.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.8
8-12 8.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.6
7-13 7.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.1
6-14 5.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.9
5-15 4.3% 4.3
4-16 3.0% 3.0
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.3% 3.4% 0.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 95.7 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%